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Pollster Reveals How Donald Trump Shapes Up Against Joe Biden in the 2024 Election
“I was blown away by these numbers.”
“I was blown away by these numbers,” said Steve Bannon recently on The War Room. He had on guest John McLaughlin, a key pollster for former President Donald Trump, who revealed new polling data that offered a snapshot of the current political landscape in the United States. Conducted between August 15th and 23rd, the poll's timing was crucial, coinciding with important events like the GOP debate and legal proceedings against Trump in Fulton County.
A Growing Foothold for Trump within the GOP
The August poll is a testimony to Trump’s strengthening grip over the Republican Party. With a commanding lead of 51% among likely Republican primary voters, Trump is far ahead of the other potential candidates. For context, Vivek Ramaswamy, the next closest competitor, garnered just 13%, and Ron DeSantis lagged at 9%.
In a hypothetical one-on-one match-up against DeSantis, Trump leads overwhelmingly, with 72% for Trump and 28% for DeSantis. These numbers signal Trump's undiminished standing within the GOP, with no other candidate even coming close.
Trump vs. Biden: A Shifting Tide
Perhaps the most eye-opening figure from the poll is the head-to-head match-up between Trump and President Joe Biden. According to McLaughlin's data, Trump leads Biden with 47% of the vote compared to Biden’s 43% among 1,000 likely voters in a national setting. This marks a significant shift, particularly considering that in both 2016 and 2020, Trump's campaigns were focused on battleground states because he was behind in national popular vote estimates.
McLaughlin also noted that Trump’s upward trend started after the U.S. withdrawed from Afghanistan in September 2021. Ever since that controversial decision by Biden, Trump has led in the national popular vote, according to McLaughlin's monthly polls. This indicates that Biden’s foreign policy may be affecting his domestic standing, swinging some voters toward Trump.
Battleground States and Electoral Votes
Further underscoring Trump's resurgence is his current standing in battleground states. In those key states, he leads with 49% of the vote compared to Biden’s 41%. McLaughlin extrapolated that this could translate to over 300 electoral votes for Trump if the election were held now. This is a significant reversal from 2020 when Trump garnered only 232 electoral votes. McLaughlin emphasized that Trump only lost by narrow margins in key states like Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin in 2020, suggesting that these could easily flip in the next election.
Public Opinion on Legal Proceedings
The poll also delved into the public's perception of the ongoing legal actions against Trump. A significant 74% of all voters surveyed believe that the indictments against Trump are politically motivated, at least in some fashion.
This perception is even stronger among Republican primary voters, 85% of whom believe the next election should be decided at the ballot box and not in the courts.
Overall, the latest poll numbers show a remarkable comeback for Donald Trump.
This is the case both within the Republican Party and in a national matchup against Joe Biden. Amidst a backdrop of national debates, controversial foreign policy decisions, and legal skirmishes, these numbers may be a bellwether for an increasingly turbulent run-up to the 2024 election.
The entire slideshow of the latest poll numbers is available at mclaughlinonline.com.
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